India have looked the most impressive team in the tournament so far and this match could be the do or die encounter for Pakistan and Sri Lanka. In all likeliness the team that wins this match will advance to the final along with India. Pakistan would like to reach the finals in the first Asia Cup in Pakistan while Sri Lanka would like to maintain their record of reaching the final in each edition of the Asia Cup.
Pakistan have been hit very badly with the absence of Gul and Asif. Fawad Alam has been dismal to say the least and Pakistan will have to play Saeed Ajmal in his place today. Wahab Riaz will come in place of Gul. Pakistan will bank on Butt, Younis, Yousuf and Malik at the top during batting and on Tanvir and Gul while bowling.
Sri Lanka in fact have a happy problem where they need to find a place for Udawatte in a packed batting order. They probably will leave him out in this match. Absence of Malinga and Maharoof has weakened the bowling a bit and not so good form of Murali isn’t happy news as well but they will look towards Jayasuriya, Vaas and Murali to stand up and be counted in this big match.
Look out For
Shoaib malik - If he stays on the crease with the same grit and determination early on then he will go ballistic later on.
Sohail Tanvir - He hasn’t had the same success after IPL and would be looking to make his mark in this big match.
Sanath Jayasuriya - He was dropped for the series in West Indies and would like to score big here to hit back hard.
Muttiah Muralidharan - Its high time he wields his magic in this tournament or his team could be packing the bags early.
Probable starters:
Pakistan:Salman Butt, Shoaib Malik (C), Younis Khan, Mohammad Yousuf, Misbah-ul-Haq, Shahid Afridi, Sarfraz Ahmed (WK), Sohail Tanvir, Saeed Ajmal, Wahab Riaz, Rao Iftikhar
Verdict: Pakistan started the tournament as a stronger force than Sri Lanka but the exit of Gul has brought the teams on level. An innings from Jayasuriya or Sangakkara at the top might just make it Sri Lanka’s night.
After a not so exciting first round fans will be looking forward to a few intriguing clashes with the four bigger teams, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh in the fray in the Super Four. India and Sri Lanka will start as favorites to move into the finals as they carry two points each from the group phase courtesy wins against Pakistan and Bangladesh respectively.
India and Sri Lanka need to win two of their three matches in Super Four to advance to the final while Pakistan need to win all three to avoid the hassles of net run rate. India and Sri Lanka also need to win at least two of the three matches to reach to the final. Only one win will have them on four points and at a lower net run rate, as the only the points and not the run rate of the match are carried on from the group phase. Amidst all these Bangladesh could spoil the party of one of three giants.
Exploring a possibility where India wins all its matches in the Super Four, interesting implications follow:-
If Sri Lanka defeat Pakistan and Bangladesh, they go through.
If Pakistan wins it’s other two matches and Sri Lanka defeat Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will be locked at four points each. This situation will favor Pakistan as Sri Lanka will not carry the positive run rate they earned in the first round.
India look the strongest of the three sides and Sri Lanka are the second most favored team to reach the finals. But leaving aside all the possibilities and probabilities the three matches involving the three giants promise a feast ahead.
Pakistan:Salman Butt, Shoaib Malik (C), Younis Khan, Mohammad Yousuf, Misbah-ul-Haq, Shahid Afridi, Fawad Alam, Sarfraz Ahmed (WK), Sohail Tanvir, Umar Gul, Rao Iftikhar
The two best fielding units in the tournament will go head to head in the second round of the tournament. This encounter will be worth the wait.
Mouth waters just thinking that Jayasuriya will open the batting for one team and Sehwag for the other, Ishant will open the bowling for one team and Murali will wield his magic for the other and not to forget Sangakkara and Dhoni two of the finest wicketkeeper-batsmen the subcontinent has seen.
India have the answer to Jayasuriya’s flamboyance in Sehwag, Yuvraj and Pathan but they are low on the reliability scale. If Sehwag and Gambhir both get out early, Indian line up could be found wanting. This is an area the team misses a player like Dravid who could drop anchor. A typical Dravid type of innings would have bailed out India in the finals of the tri nations series as well. But for Sri Lanka if Jayasuriya fails they although won’t buckle but will struggle to post or chase a big score. Rohit, Yusuf and Raina have to prove themselves on the world stage. Sangakkara and Dhoni, two of best wicketkeeper-batsmen in business will be the men in crisis for their teams.
Players on both the sides are very good fielders and keep your eyes open as they plunge to grab sharp chances and strangulate run flow.
Sri Lanka although have Vaas and Murali in their ranks but Indian bowling looks stronger on form. Maharoof’s strained abdomen has only increased the sorrows for Ceylon. For India, Ishant has been miserly, Praveen has shown tremendous control and Piyush has consistently taken wickets. If Irfan misses the tournament due to lack of fitness, it will be a blow but RP Singh and Gony will look to take full advantage.
Coming to captaincy, both Jayawardene and Dhoni have been extremely good but while Jayawardene has experience to his peril, Dhoni has shown slightly superior game reading capability.
